Outlook for 17 Dec 2007

Currently, we are below the downtrend lines ( Grey ) in both charts. Holidays are around the corner so weaker volume ahead. 50, 100 & 200 MA look like joining together soon.

Outlook for 10 Dec 2007

A word of cautious, no sign of good volume and will Fed be cutting rate this Wednesday?

Outlook for 28 Nov 2007

Hi, I'm back! So far, we have quite a few bad weeks. But no fear, currently, there seem to have signs of bottoming. As long as we don't break 3312 ( last week low ). We are safe, enjoy the year end rally!

Outlook for 12 Nov 2007

Seem like this sub prime storm no ending. Dow Jones break 200 Day Average, the last time Dow Jones break this was on 2006 mid year correction.

Outlook for 5 Nov 2007

Look like this coming week, we are set for another trading range movement. Overall, I look to the downside...

After Rate Cut!

Before US Fed Rate Cut Announcement!

Firstly, the DJI chart and this week S1, R1 & N lines. Tonight( Singapore Time ), Fed will make the announcement. Most people will hope for a 0.25% rate cut and stock market tomorrow will rally to new highs ( Just like what had happen 6 weeks ago ). Personally, I feel that even if Fed drop rate by 0.25%, I don't think market will rally again.
It is my wish that Fed don't make this cut as we see the effect on Crude Oil price & USD. Recently, I read an article on "Inflate or Die". In the article, it explained the problem that Fed are facing and why the choose to cut rates. But I rather the market die now then later. As the problem will get bigger and the bust will affect deeper ( more people will die or suffer ).
Let's just see what happen later....................................................................................

Outlook for 30 Oct 2007

Update on last week Chart! Can see support at S2.

This week charts and S & R lines.

Will Update Dow Jone & Fed Meeting Outlook.

Outlook for 22 Oct 2007

Sorry, I was unable to update due to Laptop breakdown. Anyway, last friday was 20year Anniversary for 1987 crash on 19 Oct aka " Black Monday". Look like we are going for down for the week ahead.

Outlook for 1 Oct 2007

I have some difficulty showing you the R1 vaule on the chart. For STI R1 at 3720 & R2 at 3810.
And Dow R1 at 14041 & R2 at 14200.
Please look closely at the red & green arrows showing the volume in the charts. There is also a divergence of MACD histogram & DJI index.
( Refering to Dow Jones) This month of Sept we made a 4.03% gain, the last time that a month of Sept with this good performance is in 1998. I believe that the month of Oct we will have a correction. Only time will tell.

China Index near Support Line.

There is a divergence between stock index and MACD lines. Refer to the link below, sell volume are higher than buy volume.
http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/md/sh_b_qck.jsp?code=000001.SS&cycle=1

Outlook for 26 Sept 2007

Looking at the trading Volumes, Sell volume are getting stronger. Do keep track of the trading volume in the next few days, a reverse may happen as we moving toward historical high. We need a strong buy volume to break these levels.

Outlook for 25 Spet 07

Basically, we can see some buy strength in the markets. Therefore, current uptrend will continue but do watch out the for any weakness in buying strength compare to selling strength.
Do monitor for MACD red bars appearing.

The Aftermath of Fed Making 0.5% rate cut.

Last weekend, I was hoping that Fed don't make the cut, but Fed made a 0.5% cut.

In the coming weeks, we are likely to see two events happening.

1. Weak US Dollar

2. Inflation, ie. Crude Oil hitting US$90 or higher.

Although, a collapse of US was unlikely to happen but at least in the next few months a weak USD are bound to happen. Most Foreign Players buy in USD for 3 things, Properties( Long Term ), Bonds ( depend on the years they buy ) & Stocks ( Short Term ). You guess what will happen next/latter.

A common practise for Central Banks around the world, is to use Interest Rate to control Inflation Rate. Recently, we are seeing China's inflation problem spreading globally. With the rate decreases, Commodities will raise lead by Crude Oil.

IMO, what Fed had did was to solve a current problem. They are lending money to gamblers ask them not to gamble again...

I have added S2 into the chart.

Outlook for 17 Sept 2007

From this week onwards, I have added MACD & Stochastic into my analysis charts. Last week, I thought that the markets will end the bull run as we await for US Fed's meeting on 18 Sept (this week). But that did not happen, market made a small correction and the bull started running up again.
As for the coming week, low volume expected on Monday & Tuesday, as Asia markets awaiting overnight announcement of Fed on 18 Sept. Currently, I believe that 90% traders believed that Fed will cut rate at least 0.25%, some even projected a 0.5% cuts. As for me, I belong to the 10% group, and after the anouncement, we should see a bit of retracement started.

I don't think that US will cut rate on 18 Sept because of inflation pressure, Crude oil hit record high & both Bs ( Bush and Bernanke ) have warned that they will not help people due to stock markets losses. In addition, the market have pre-dissolved the news that Fed will be cutting 0.25%. Even if Fed were to cut more than 0.25%, it tells the market that there is a problem in US. Therefore, market are likely to be weak this week.
Oh, one more thing, buy volume are in downtrend & selling volume are in uptrend ( refer to charts. )

Result of 10 Sept to 14 Sept

For the past week, STI did not even need to test S1 a strong bull trend was still intact.

STI Outlook for 10 Sept 2007

This week's R1, N & S1 numbers.

Last night, US's Nonfarm Payroll M/M was -4k instead of 100k estimated. To make that worse, Alan Greenspan, Ex Fed Boss, said that current situation was similar to prior crash of 1987 & 1998.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070907/ts_alt_afp/useconomymarkets_070907152258

Coming week, STI & DJI should be testing my S1 and if there's a need, I will post out S2 numbers in the charts. (Anyway, STI S2 is 3301 and DJI S2 is 12800 )

Result 3 Sept to 7 Sept

It's been a busy week for me, sorry cannot post anything in the mid-week. Just post up the pictures to show the usefulness of R1, N & S1. Sorry again, I can't show the formulae as it was belong to someone else...

STI Outlook for 3 Sep 2007

As Bernanke & President Bush have promised to help sub-prime mortgages, more uptrend in the following week. Currently, almost everyone believed that Fed will drop interest rate on 19 Sep 07 Fed meeting. We will wait and see.
I have added R1, S1 & Neutral lines in the charts. These lines are base on some calculation on past week data. If Indices are near to R1 or S1 it will tend to move back to neutral if trading volume reduces.

STI Outlook for 30 Aug 2007

As in the chart, STI hits 200MA and rebounded strongly. With Dow & Nasdaq moving up strongly in overnight trading, STI will continue its uptrend on Thursday in early hours of trading.
IMO, the STI's volume on Wednesday was a bit disappointing. In addition, Dow & Nasdaq closed just below their resistance lines. Therefore, this uptrend may end soon.

STI Outlook for 29 Aug 2007

All 3 Indices shown here have broken there uptrend lines. The bad new is they have not found a good support line. But, the good new is the selling volumes are weaker. Thus, I see a further retracement in next two days. STI need to reach to a supporting level( 200MA) to create a new bull trend.

Comex is on this weekend, I believe the sale figures will be poorer than before. Due to, additional of 2% GST, Nets issue,etc. This will only affect a small percentage. The main issues are still in US. Thursday night, US will have the Q2 Preliminary GDP, I believe it will give to market some upside push.

China's Influence to the World!

China's SSE hit new high this week.

Recently, there are lots of problems that are surfacing, mainly, inflation problems. This inflation problem are spreading to us. China's Yuan which have not been moving in values, have causes China's exporters to increase $$ for their goods. In additon, some cities in China have reported to have housing loan problem. There is a big storm brewing, we may not be able to avoid but we can reduce the impart to the minimum.

STI Outlook for 27 Aug 2007

Thursday, a retracement happened in the late morning once STI was just slightly above 50 days MA.( read my Thursday post. ), This ended on Friday at 3318 (support), and ended the day at 3369.
On Friday night, we see that both Dow & Nasdaq up by 1%+.Therefore, this coming Monday STI will be going up but whether can STI overcome 50 days MA ( Blue line ) is a question. A retracement will likely to happen again either on Tuesday or Wednesday. At 3415 there is a resistance and at 3322 a neutral point.
To know what likely to happen later in the week we go back to 2006 mid year correction. See below charts. The angles at which the Indexes are going up are very steep. Thus, the support lines are weak.

STI Outlook for 23 August 2007

New uptrend have started, a retracement may happen on this afternoon or on friday. Therefore, Invest with care.

STI Outlook for 22 Aug 2007

Well, my words are in the picture.

STI Outlook for 21 Aug 2007

Just uploaded this week STI analysis.
Mainly looking at Trading Volume. This week, hope STI can stay above 200 days MA at 3250.